Do you know anyone who is more confident in their own abilities than their actual performance suggests they should be?
你认识那些对自己的能力比实际表现所显示的要自信得多的人吗？
Perhaps they think they are an incredible singer, but they're actually tone-deaf.
也许他们认为自己是了不起的歌手，但实际上他们五音不全。
Most people believe that they are more intelligent and skilful than the average person, according to a 2020 meta-analysis by Zell and colleagues.
根据Zell及其同事2020年的一项元分析，大多数人认为自己比普通人更聪明、更有技能。
Obviously, this cannot be the case.
显然，事实并非如此。
Overconfidence has a cost – it can lead to things like poor financial decisions and dangerous driving.
过度自信是有代价的——它可能导致诸如糟糕的财务决策和危险驾驶等问题。
So why do we have such a tendency to overestimate our abilities?
那么，为什么我们会有这种高估自己能力的倾向呢？
Excessive self-belief requires self-deception – believing your own falsehoods.
过度的自信需要自我欺骗——相信自己的谎言。
An evolutionary perspective argues that humans evolved self-deception so that we could deceive others more easily.
进化论观点认为，人类进化出自我欺骗是为了更容易地欺骗他人。
The theory goes that if you believe your own lies about your abilities, you're less likely to display behaviours which will give it away, such as nervousness or hesitation.
该理论认为，如果你相信自己关于能力的谎言，你就不太可能表现出会暴露真相的行为，如紧张或犹豫。
Deceiving others about your abilities may enable you to open doors, but it is when you have to prove yourself that overconfidence can lead to costly mistakes.
在能力上欺骗他人也许能为你打开大门，但正是在你需要证明自己时，过度自信可能导致代价高昂的错误。
For those who have a greater underlying ability, though, overconfidence can be highly beneficial.
然而，对于具有更强潜在能力的人来说，过度自信可能非常有益。
This is what researchers are calling the 'peacock's tail for people'.
这就是研究人员所说的“人类的孔雀尾巴”。
Peacocks have long and brightly coloured feathers to attract females, but they are extremely burdensome.
孔雀有长而鲜艳的羽毛来吸引雌性，但它们极其沉重。
The feathers are heavy and highly visible to predators, so only the healthiest peacocks can afford to carry such elaborate plumage.
这些羽毛很重，而且容易被捕食者看到，所以只有最健康的孔雀才能承受如此华丽的羽毛。
In other words, their feathers are a reliable indicator of their suitability for potential mates.
换句话说，它们的羽毛是其适合作为潜在配偶的可靠指标。
Authors of a 2026 study, published in the Psychological Review compare this phenomenon with human overconfidence.
发表在《心理学评论》上的一项2026年研究的作者将此现象与人类的过度自信进行了比较。
They argue that only the most capable people can keep a high self-belief without suffering severe consequences.
他们认为，只有最有能力的人才能保持高度的自信而不遭受严重后果。
In other words, overconfidence may actually be a useful signal of ability.
换句话说，过度自信实际上可能是能力的有用信号。
So, what lessons can be learnt from all this?
那么，我们能从这一切中学到什么教训呢？
If you have a high ability in a particular skill, make sure you have the confidence to match it.
如果你在某一特定技能上有很高的能力，确保你有与之匹配的信心。
Ability can bring success, but remember, it is confidence which opens the doors in the first place.
能力能带来成功，但记住，首先打开大门的是自信。
